Median values across the metro continue inching up while inventory stays low, but not quite as low as last year around this time. Over the past 12 months the median home price in the Twin Cities Region rose 5.98% to $280,000 in November 2019. The months supply of homes for sale increased by 4.7% to a 2.2 months supply this November compared to 2.1 last. During this 12-month period the total number of new homes for sale increased by 2.5% to 10,959 across the 16-county region while the average number of days on market remained steady at 49. This is good news for buyers who have slightly more choices than last year, however, the market still favors sellers with low inventory (especially at lower price points) and median home values increasing overall.

Seasonal Trends

Cold weather and holidays mark the slow season for home buying and selling in Minnesota. These predicable dips in inventory and corresponding sales typically begin the last weeks of summer and bottom out around January. We’re in the downslope now but I’m still seeing hard-to-find homes selling within days, especially in the most sought-after neighborhoods.

Selling

For homes that do sit longer, sellers sometimes choose to pull them off the market temporarily over the holidays. This “off market” status stops the clock, minimizing visible days on market, so it can be a smart move for listings with dwindling activity. Cancelling and re-listing after the New Year is another option for sellers wanting to reset and come back on as “new”.

Buying

Buyers who find their dream home during these slower months might want to act. There’s most likely less competition, so less pressure to bid up. It’s also more likely they’ll be working with motivated sellers who may be more willing to negotiate on price and terms. And interest rates are still historically low — excellent news for non-cash buyers. Come spring, there will be more homes to choose from but also more shoppers, raising sellers’ expectations. A competitive spring market will likely generate multiple offer scenarios and greater hope among sellers who hold out for highest and best, adding stress to an already (potentially) stressful process.

Local Trends

Real estate markets are often hyperlocal so it’s worth taking a closer look at variations within the two cities and their surrounding suburbs.

St. Paul

A late-fall snapshot of the St. Paul market reveals a steady increase in sales prices with inventory still low at most prices, especially below the $600K mark. St. Paul’s overall median sale price for all home types rose 6.78% over the past 12 months — from $210,000 Nov 2018 to $224,450 Nov 2019. Compared to Minneapolis’s $280,000 median price, the capitol city remains a more affordable option for buyers seeking walkable neighborhoods with urban amenities. Current St. Paul homeowners may welcome the news of continued bump-ups in sales prices, especially those looking to sell soon.

% Change in median sales price - Nov 2018 to Nov 2019

Several of St. Paul’s more affordable neighborhoods experienced some of the highest year-over-year increases. Payne-Phalen, for example, topped the chart with a +11.17% jump from fast fall, and Thomas-Dale had the second highest increase despite being the third most affordable area.

In some instances, an overall median price fails to reveal insignificant variations within a neighborhood. For example, homes sold in the past 12 months in Summit-University ranged from $83,000 to $2.2 million. Though not an apples-to-apples comparison, it’s important to note such drastic differences and stay cognizant of how values can change block-by-block. If you’re working with a real estate agent they should be neighborhood-savvy enough to understand where and how values shift in your area.

Minneapolis

Minneapolis home prices also continued their steady rise over the past year. November 2019 data revealed a median value of $280,000 for all home styles, sizes and sale types — a 7.3% increase from the November before. The city’s median values remain higher than St. Paul’s and a 10-year trend shows that gap slowly expanding.

The median sale price of newly constructed MLS-listed* condos has dipped slightly since last year at this time, while inventory levels inched up a bit to a more balanced level. The November 2019 median price for newly-built condos was $538,439, down half a percent from last November. Late fall inventory levels of new units remain low-to-balanced with a current 3.4 month supply, up slightly from a 2.2 months supply the fall before. The combo townhouse/condo median sales price of both new and previously-owned units increased by 14% over the last year, far exceeding the 4.3% increase in the city’s single-family market.

How does Minneapolis compare overall to its immediate first-ring neighbors? On average, it sits near the middle, with Edina at the high end ($470,000) and Brooklyn Center at the low (220,000). Cities just west of downtown hold value as second highest — Golden Valley and St. Louis Park have fall 2019 median sale prices of $339,500 and $304,500, respectively. Of course neighborhoods vary greatly so specific locations, and even certain blocks within a community, should always be considered when determining real market values.

Aside from the predictable winter slow-down, it’s still a seller’s market, especially for fairly priced, move-in ready homes. And despite having fewer choices, shoppers are still out, though not as many as in spring & summer. Buyers who do shop diligently during winter months can sometimes be more aggressive, needing to buy within a certain timeframe. Why else would they brave the cold at showings and open houses? Leisurely lookers also peruse winter listings however, often waiting and watching for price drops. Though situations do vary, factors like rising rents and low interest rates continue to motivate many shoppers.

Sellers who need or choose to list this time of year shouldn’t lose hope, homes do sell in winter. If timing isn’t a factor though, waiting until after the New Year might not be a bad idea. Listing in late January/early February could catch waves of early-bird buyers, eager to get ahead of the competition. Everyone’s situation is different though, so it can be helpful to talk it through. I’d be happy to assist with any questions about the timing of selling or buying. Feel free to reach me at heidi@lyndenrealty.com or 651-503-1540.

Heidi Swanson is a Realtor® based in St. Paul, Minnesota. She writes a blog to share information on a variety of real estate related topics including buying and selling, market conditions, homeownership trends and more. Reach her at heidi@lyndenrealty.com or 651-503-1540.

*New condos sales and inventory numbers from Northstar MLS database; they do not include in-house sales from developers.

Banner photo credit: Hal Tearse from Pixabay